Robert Fisk: As the 6am ceasefire takes effect... the real war begins
The war that Bush hoped would be "a dry run" for his proposed war against Iran stopped at 5am GMT this morning.
The Israelis have described the past few days as "a mopping up" procedure, although when one considers that Israel lost almost 40 soldiers yesterday alone, one has to ask who is actually doing the mopping up here.
The question now is whether or not the ceasefire can hold.
Hizbullah have said that they will consider any Israeli forces still on their soil as legitimate targets, so far about 10,000 Israeli troops remain in Lebanon.
Robert Fisk:
At this fatal juncture in Middle East history - and no one should underestimate this moment's importance in the region - the Israeli army appears as impotent to protect its country as the Hizbollah clearly is to protect Lebanon.Olmert's career is hanging by a thread. Many Israelis are now calling for his resignation, and I fear that is set to greatly increase when the Israeli population become aware of just how much this was a pre-planned war of choice. Seymour Hersh is now reporting, as I reported here a few days ago, that Bush and Blair were told Israel had plans to invade Lebanon months before the kidnapping of the two soldiers that supposedly started this war.
But if the ceasefire collapses, as seems certain, neither the Israelis nor the Americans appear to have any plans to escape the consequences. The US saw this war as an opportunity to humble Hizbollah's Iranian and Syrian sponsors but already it seems as if the tables have been turned. The Israeli military appears to be efficient at destroying bridges, power stations, gas stations and apartment blocks - but signally inefficient in crushing the "terrorist" army they swore to
liquidate.
"The Lebanese government is our address for every problem or violation of the [ceasefire] agreement," Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, said yesterday, as if realising the truce would not hold.
The report by Seymour Hersh quotes an unidentified US government consultant with close ties to the Israelis who says:
"The Israelis told us it would be a cheap war with many benefits. Why oppose it? We'll be able to hunt down and bomb missiles, tunnels, and bunkers from the air. It would be a demo for Iran."Bush and his aides have denied that this war was planned.
A former intelligence officer, also quoted, says: "We told Israel,'Look, if you guys have to go, we're behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later. The longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office'."
Both Israeli and US officials say that the Israeli military operation against Hizbollah was triggered by the seizing of two Israeli soldiers, apparently to be bargained with for a possible prisoner swap. But Hersh's report, published in today's issue of The New Yorker, adds to evidence that Israel had been anticipating a Hizbollah provocation for some time and planning its response a response that was widely condemned for being disproportionate.
Last night the White House denied the allegations contained in Hersh's piece with a brief statement from the President describing it as "patently untrue". Mr Bush's national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, added: " The suggestion that the US and Israel planned and co-ordinated an attack on Hizbollah and did so as a prelude to an attack on Iran is just flat wrong."If you believe that, you really will believe anything.
What happens next is anyone's guess. As I write this, the TV pictures are showing tanks lying idle, although it will be weeks before any UN troops arrive and yesterday there were reports that the Lebanese government cancelled a meeting with disagreements over the disarming of Hizbullah.
Israel should hope that this ceasefire does hold, for if fighting breaks out then no international force will be willing to place itself in southern Lebanon. Israel will then find herself in the middle of a guerrilla war with Hizbullah. And that's a war that I feel she could very well lose.
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2 comments:
Kel! Dead on Dead ON! So are you out of the country yet or is was this post a 'quickie' before leaving? You can't help yourself Kel, admit it. If your hotel won't have a good enough internet connection, you'll find an internet cafe.. or, you're gonna burst before you get back because you have 'too' much passion for this...(just write things long hand if you can't post, you might actually have the advantage of NOT being able to post which will lead to more contemplative posts..it is a fun exercise trust me)
Ingrid
btw..apparently, Robert Fisk is not welcome in the US anymore, I read it in an article on Dahr Jamails' site..too bad for us,would not have minded seeing him at a speaking engagement
Ingrid,
That post was made from the hotel and the connection was crap. And yes, I have been thinking of finding an internet cafe!
The trouble is I am also working very long days.
But, as you say, I think I'm slightly driven by all of this!
I don't know if I've told you this, but I have seen Risk give a lecture. It was a bloody treat!
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