The summit fails. War rages

It has been Israel's toughest day so far in it's battle with Hizbullah and it may well be seen as a turning point. The day when Israeli forces accepted that they could not destroy or disarm Hizbullah.

Israel yesterday lost 14 soldiers, it's highest casualty toll since fighting broke out between Israel and Hizbullah.

And the losses appeared to unnerve Ehud Olmert.

Less than a day after he had vowed to fight Hizbullah to the end, he yesterday spoke for a need for a quick end to the conflict. The Israeli military has been taken by surprise by the ferocity of Hizbullah's resistance and may have to rethink its strategy.

The unthinkable appears to be happening. Israel is losing the war.

After two weeks of intense bombing and the recent attempts to make ground assaults into Lebanon, the rocket attacks from Hizbullah show no sign of abating. Indeed, if anything, they are merely growing in intensity with the number landing in Israel increasing yesterday to 100.

In a seeming U-turn, Mr Olmert signalled that he would make do with a weakened Hizbullah rather than one that had been completely disarmed. "We want to stop the operation as fast as possible," Mr Olmert told MPs, "but we will not do so until we achieve the results which would justify the price we have paid and which would prevent us paying a price which we cannot pay."

Even the Israeli press now seem to be accepting that Israel's military aims will not be met and that a prisoner release will have to be carried out to free Israel's captured soldiers. Which, of course, was the deal already on the table before Olmert decided to level Beirut.

It is similarly unlikely that Israel's kidnapped soldiers will be returned without at least a token release of prisoners.

But it is the Shaba Farms that will pose one of the greatest problems for Israel. Israel recognizes that it is not its territory and ostensibly should not find it hard to hand over the keys, but conceding the area to the Lebanese government, or to a committee that will decide whether to give it to Lebanon or to Syria, will be presented as another Hezbollah victory. The Americans, too, know this.

The U.S. realizes that Israel will probably not succeed in destroying Hezbollah's infrastructure in Lebanon. It hopes that strengthening the government in Beirut will eventually enable that regime to get the job done, but is not counting on it. "Right now Hezbollah is not disarmed, and to hold off as the precondition for deployment of [an international] force.. is to create a precondition that cannot be met," Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs David Welch said Wednesday while flying with Rice from Israel to Rome.

"So let's be realistic about this," Welch counseled. In other words, the time for making big promises is over, now is the time for negotiations.

And if there are to be negotiations, then it is more than likely that the Americans will also have to pay a price. Just as the U.S. was forced to take a new tack with regard to Iran, now it may have to resume talks with Syria. That would be a very bitter pill to swallow, especially for Pentagon officials, but there are already signs that they are getting ready to do so.

For all Condi's talk yesterday about "a new Middle East" and despite the arrogance that has led the Israelis to launch it's disproportionate attacks against the people of Lebanon, the Israelis now find themselves in the same quagmire that Bush finds himself in within Iraq.

Traditional armies are very good at fighting traditional armies. They find it infinitely more difficult to confront Guerilla forces who do not obey the established rules of war.

Yesterday, Condi again refused calls from all and sundry for the imposition of a ceasefire.

Ms Rice said: "We have to have a plan that will actually create conditions in which we can have a ceasefire that will be sustainable." Mrs Beckett said: "Even if you could get a ceasefire half an hour ago, you would probably be back in hostilities in a few days."

One has to wonder whether or not they actually believe what they say. Are they really this stupid and arrogant? Have they totally lost the plot and missed the significance of what is taking place on the ground?

Any forces that the international community places in southern Lebanon will remain there only as long as Hizbullah decides to allow them to remain there. Otherwise, like the Israelis - with the fourth largest army in the world - they will be swatted away like flies.

That is the new reality.

The time for posturing is over. It is time to negotiate. And not just for the return of kidnapped soldiers.

Olmert has stated that he intends to withdraw from the West Bank, just as Sharon withdrew from Gaza. The US and Israel should now open talks with Hamas and finally bring an end to the occupation.

If they could bring themselves to do that, they would they would do more to destroy the causes of international terrorism than any amount of military action could ever achieve.

Tags: Olmert, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Gilad Shalit, Hamas, Hizbullah, capture, kidnap, Lebanon, Syria, Iran,