Olmert's options narrow.

There's an old joke about a Highlander asked how long it will take to get to the next village. "Ten minutes," he replies, then adds, "But I wouldn't start from here."

I am reminded of this when I look at the situation in the Middle East and am left wondering if Olmert now regrets his behaviour since the kidnap of Gilad Shalit.

There were many of us who warned that, he was not only endangering Shalit's life by his incendiary behaviour, but he was risking the fact that the situation could escalate out of control. I think the phrase I used was that he was using brawn rather than brains, relying on Israel's superior military power - as if that held all the answers. Indeed, it looked at times more like an attempt to destroy the government of Hamas rather than a genuine effort to secure the release of Gilad Shalit.

But such warnings were merely breath wasted, Olmert plundered on, destroying Gaza's only power station, arresting a large proportion of the Palestinian Authority, buzzing planes over the Syrian capital... There seemed no limit to what Olmert would do to avoid pragmatism.

Since the abduction (of Gilad Shalit) more than 70 Palestinians, many of them civilians, have been killed by Israeli forces. The latest fatalities included nine members of one family (two adults and seven children) who died when an Israeli plane dropped a bomb on a supposed meeting of Hamas leaders. That is the dreadful reality of the "collateral damage" suffered by bystanders in Israel's relentless pursuit of its enemies. Self-defence is the right of every nation. But actions such as these are war crimes that will not be expiated by occasional expressions of regret.

Yesterday the situation escalated yet again as Hizbullah forces on Israel's northern border captured two Israeli soldiers and killed seven others.

Israel has responded with an assault on Southern Lebanon, targeting the country's only international airport and forcing its closure.

Olmert's position as a man who will not negotiate has been severely weakened. Practically, he now has two choices. Plunder on and watch the violence escalate on new fronts or make a humiliating climb down and begin negotiations.

Like the Highlander, I wouldn't want to start from here. However, this is the impasse that Olmert's overreaction has brought him to.

"Olmert's situation has become radically more complicated," said Yossi Alpher, former military intelligence officer and ex-director of the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies. "The government's situation is complicated, the army's situation too. The public will ask why the army can't take care of its soldiers."

Hizbullah's capture of the two soldiers would appear to strengthen the demands of Hamas for the release of Palestinian security prisoners in Israel jails in return for freeing Cpl Shalit. Hizbullah is demanding that Israel release all Arab prisoners.

Mr Alpher said Mr Olmert would probably be forced to agree to release some prisoners. "I don't see how we'll be able to avoid ransoming these soldiers by releasing prisoners. If Olmert thought he could stand firm on one front, it will be very difficult to do so on two," he said.

"Everything we know from previous instances indicates the public will stomach negotiations with Hamas and Hizbullah. Every prime minister who has released hundreds of prisoners has been criticised in the newspaper columns but it hasn't affected his standing with the public, it hasn't cost him elections."

The noises emanating from Israel are not reassuring, with plans for reserve forces to be called up.

As usual the US presented a supportive voice, ignoring the fact that Israel are dealing with terrorist groups rather than legitimate governments, and swiftly condemned the governments of Iran and Syria. (The US can never be accused of missing an opportunity to punch an old enemy.)

Israel seem to lay the blame at the door of the Lebanese government, who deny any part in the kidnappings.

Israel's army chief of staff, General Dan Halutz, said his military would target infrastructure and "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years" if the soldiers were not freed.

Hizbullah said it would exchange the two captured soldiers for Arab security prisoners in Israeli jails, backing a similar demand by Hamas and other Palestinian militias holding a third soldier, Corporal Gilad Shalit, in Gaza.

"Now Israeli has to decide on its choices," Hamas's spokesman in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, told the Associated Press. "It is early to talk about details of the exchange, but no doubt the operation carried out by Hizbullah today will strengthen our demands to exchange the captives."

The UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, called for the immediate release of the captured soldiers but also criticised Israel. "I condemn without reservations the attack in southern Lebanon, and demand that Israeli troops be released immediately," he said.

Olmert's plan to use extreme force to ensure Shalit's release was always counter productive and, in many ways, threatened his life as much as it could be said to aid in his rescue. But there was always the hope that, if you battered the civilian population long enough, the terror groups might take pity for the civilian population and release the soldier to end their suffering. As plans go, it was a disgusting one as it involved the war crime of collective punishment of a people who had bugger all to do with Shalit's capture.

However, even that plan must now be up in flames as inflicting the same pain on Lebanon and Hizbullah will be almost impossible.

Olmert must now begin his climb down.

I can understand that he will be reluctant to start from this position. However, this is a position he need never have found himself in had he better considered his options a week ago.

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Tags: Olmert, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Gilad Shalit, Khaled Meshaal, Hamas, Hizbullah, capture, kidnap, Lebanon,