The Osterley Times: Lebanon: the world looks on

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Lebanon: the world looks on

Disproportionate Israeli attacks continued to rain down on Lebanon yesterday, killing 47 people and wounding at least 53, whilst a muted world looked on.

No words of condemnation were heard, no calls for ceasefire uttered. The death toll since Israel began its attack has risen to 210 in Lebanon and 29 in Israel.

Nor is there any sign that Israel wants this madness to end.

Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, dismissed hopes of a quick resolution to the conflict last night, vowing his military would continue operating at full intensity. He said Israel would not stop until two of its captured soldiers were freed, the Lebanese army deployed to protect Israel's northern border and Hizbullah forced to disarm.
He said both Hizbollah and Hamas, the Palestinian group, were working with the support of "the axis of evil that stretches from Tehran to Damascus. When missiles rain on our cities, our response will be to wage war with greater determination, courage and sacrifice," he said. "We don't seek war or head-on confrontation but if necessary we shall not flinch from them."

The notion that Israel "don't seek war or head-on confrontation" seems to me to be somewhat at odds with the facts. The heavy handed response to the kidnap of Gilad Shalit was a chosen one, it was not the only response open to the Israelis at the time. And why does Olmert only speak of the release of two captured soldiers? Again, where in all of this is Gilad Shalit?

However, and maybe I'm being wildly optimistic here, but I get the distinct feeling that the energy is running out of this conflict. Despite Israeli rhetoric, they surely realise that they have backed themselves into an impossible corner and given themselves war objectives that are impossible to achieve.

The simple truth is that Israel are not going to destroy Hizbullah and they know it.

After six days of fighting, the death toll continues it's inexorable rise with no military advantage being achieved or even seeming possible. The three captured Israeli soldiers are still in the hands of Palestinian rebels and Hizbullah.

Which is where this all started. If you can cast your mind back, this was all supposedly being done to secure the release of Gilad Shalit.

In terms of the objective to release captured prisoners, the campaign has been the miserable failure that it was always destined to be. However, viewed on a wider scale, the results of this inhumane campaign by Israel have been disastrous. World opinion, with the notable exception of the US, has been vehemently opposed to Israel's blatant over-reaction. The idea of "little Israel" facing hostile Arab hordes has been surrendered to the view of an Israeli army out of control, caring not how many civilians it massacres. An Israel that indulges openly in collective punishment, caring not a jot for international law.

But, more worrying for Israel, belief in her supposedly superior military might has been dented by a campaign from Hizbullah revealing a military capability that few of us believed she possessed prior to this conflict. We can argue forever about who is arming Hizbullah, but the fact remains that they have the power to do great damage to the Israeli civilian population, and that this fact means that Israel no longer has the ability to inflict damage to her enemies with her previously held impunity.

It is for this reason that I believe Bush will shortly step in and bring an end to this conflict. Not to stop the damage that Israel is inflicting upon Gaza and Lebanon, but to stop the damage that she is inflicting upon herself and her reputation.

Olmert, by continually trying to out-Sharon Sharon, has to be saved from himself. If Bush insists that he stops, he can at least save face by claiming that US interference brought matters to a climax rather than a realisation that the plan was fatally flawed.

However, even when Bush eventually - and in most people's opinion far too late in the day - stops this madness, the damage will have been done.

Muslim lives will be recognised to have very little value to those who lead the West. And it will be a long time before people forget the silence of Europe when faced with Israeli aggression and American connivance.