Iran warns the west: ignore us at your peril
The original plan was for Israel to march in to Lebanon, disarm Hizbullah and then either tempt Syria and Iran to join the battle or simply to attack Syria anyway. How things have changed faced with the actual reality on the ground.
As the weeks have progressed, the easy Israeli victory that she and the US must have predicted has proven ever harder to achieve. Hizbullah are better armed and much better organised as a military unit that any of us would have believed when this conflict began.
And so the Israeli plan has changed accordingly. Now it is enough to deal Hizbullah "a significant blow", whatever that is.
Now we hear Israeli Brigadier General Shuki Shachar, the deputy head of Israel's northern command, altering the objectives and issuing bizarre pronouncements like, "We don't want to conquer Bint Jbeil, we will hold the ground and the high positions around the village. To hit the terrorists you don't have to be in every square inch of the town."
With this tacit admission that Israel are not capable of even achieving their much reduced war aim of conquering four small Lebanese villages, one and a half miles inside the border, it is becoming clear that Israel is on the brink of losing this war.
Gideon Levy has stated, "A decisive victory is not in the offing. Continuing the war guarantees a heavy price without any guarantee of reward. Israel must cease and desist."
Yoel Marcus says in Ha'aretz newspaper:A country that stood up to seven Arab nations in the War of Independence, a war of the "few against the many," with an army that pulverized the invading forces of three Arab nations in the span of six days, is now facing an embarrassing role reversal: a war of the "many against the few" in which Israel is on the floorboards.
Israel is now looking for a face-saving way out of this conflict, which it appears, is where Condi comes in. If Israel can negotiate a settlement than she can still, theoretically, claim a victory of sorts.
However, it appears that once again arrogance is replacing common sense as the Israeli/US position appears to be that they will state the terms of the ceasefire, a position normally only taken by the obvious victor in a conflict.
Condi is to hold a conference in Rome:The Rome conference is to be attended by the US, Canada, Britain, France, Spain, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, as well as the UN and the World Bank. It is due to publish a statement setting out the broad outlines of a possible deal, including the injection of a muscular international stabilisation force which Hizbullah rejected yesterday.
The offer of the return of the Shebaa farms is quite obviously not an offer being made by a victor.
The ceasefire, a prisoner exchange and the new international force are expected to comprise the main elements of the Rome deal. The US is also thought to be ready to offer Lebanon the return of the contested Shebaa farms region occupied by Israel since 1982 as part of the package.
However, looking at the list of people attending the Rome conference, I am more struck by who is missing than by who is taking part.
Where are Iran and Syria who the US have been telling us for weeks are the main sponsors of Hizbullah? How can you possibly hope to negotiate any lasting settlement when you are, in effect, negotiating with yourself?
It's typical of the arrogance of the Bush administration that they still feel they can dictate reality despite what is actually occurring on the ground. The Iranian response has been predictably scathing.
A senior Iranian official, speaking by phone from Tehran, said: "Iran and Syria should be involved [in peace negotiations], not because they are sponsors of Hizbullah, but because they are regional powers. If Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are involved, then Iran and Syria should be as well, if they are looking to be successful."
The official added that a continuing failure to halt the fighting and reach a just settlement would "certainly spark a backlash" across the Muslim world. He said that public opinion was increasingly outraged by the destruction of Lebanon.
Last night, Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said his group's missiles would start hitting targets deeper into Israel, and warned he would not accept a "humiliating" ceasefire.
Even the British spokesman is admitting that Condi is wasting her time in Rome.
The longer this goes on the more damage is being done, not only to Israel's reputation as a peaceful nation, but - and this should worry Condi - the real damage being done is to her reputation as a formidable fighting force.An official involved in preparations for the summit lowered expectations for the Rome meeting: "It's going to be a talking shop," he said.
He added: "Iran and Syria are definitely protagonists and people will need to speak to them as this goes on. But this meeting will not find the silver bullet."
For this reason, it is in Israel's best interests that this conflict should end quickly.
And that won't happen until you talk to the people who have the influence to make it stop.
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