Trouble spots threaten perfect storm of global crises - study
Defence experts in Britain have delivered a report on the various threats facing the country and have concluded that events in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea could all come together to form a perfect storm of simultaneous international crises, independent defence experts said yesterday.
The report acknowledged that Iraq may not survive our act of interventionism:
Dr Chipman said the new Iraqi government faced "fundamental challenges" that could quickly overwhelm its attempts to hold the country together and invite regional intervention. "It is doubtful that a collective sense of Iraqi nationalism can survive in a context of increasing sectarian violence and the continuing security vacuum. Democracy has exacerbated Iraq's ethnic and religious tensions, with voters largely dividing along Sunni, Shia and Kurdish lines.
"There is a great deal of worry about the speed at which the Iraqi army and police forces have been stood up," said an Iraq specialist, Toby Dodge. He described Mr Blair's troop withdrawal timetable, due to begin in July, as "optimistic" and predicted it could lead to greater insecurity this year.
The report also highlights the still present danger of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the production of heroin there, it points out that North Korea had enough plutonium to produce between 5 and 11 nuclear weapons.
In an implicit criticism of Washington's policy of ostracism and financial sanctions, Dr Chipman said North Korea had concluded that "the Bush administration is not serious about negotiations and [has] hostile intent".So Afghanistan is flaring up again with a Taliban revival, North Korea is about to build new nuclear weapons, the US are continuing to refuse to negotiate with Iran - who have acquired nuclear capability, although not the ability to manufacture the bomb - and Iraq teeters on the edge of imploding and splitting into three separate parts.
This is the result of George Bush's foreign policy laid bare.
It is not a pretty sight and I'm sure not even his greatest supporters could argue that his policies have made the world a safer place.
However, all the indications are that it could get a lot worse.
It is still not too late for the US to change course and engage in old fashioned diplomacy, especially in the cases of Iran and North Korea.
Although, to be honest, I won't be holding my breath.
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