Monday, May 22, 2006

Montenegro vote finally seals death of Yugoslavia

At the moment it's only a prediction, but if the prediction of the polling results in Montenegro are correct then the world is welcoming it's newest state.

Polls are saying that Montenegrans have elected by 55.3% (a whisker above the required 55%) to secede from Serbia.

This spells the end of the former Yugoslavia.

The Guardian are reporting a much higher figure of 56.3%, but it's impossible at the moment to know who has the most accurate figures.

The official results are expected today. If, as expected, the prediction is confirmed, it will establish a new small state in the Balkans and leave a shrunken Serbia nursing intense grievances from 15 years of Yugoslav disintegration. But while the margin of victory appeared solid, the projection was close enough to the threshold set by the EU to make a dispute over the outcome almost inevitable.

The leader of the pro-Serbia unionist side, Predrag Bulatovic, refused to concede defeat and talked of "destabilisation" and "tricks." Tensions have been running high in the small highland republic between independence-seekers and the pro-Serbia unionist camp, although there were high hopes that the separation of Montenegro from the rump Yugoslavia could turn out to be a peaceful, if fraught, process, in contrast to the bloodshed which accompanied the independence campaigns of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo in the wars of the 1990s.

In the run-up to yesterday's vote, the tensions between Serbia and Montenegro were such that they could not agree on a common entrant for Saturday's Eurovision song contest in Athens, and pulled out. Both republics are, however, fielding a common side at the World Cup in Germany next month, meaning that the football festival will be Yugoslavia's swansong.

Controversial terms set for the referendum by Brussels meant that the independence-seekers had to take 55% of the vote for the outcome to be recognised by the EU. The vote was heavily monitored by international observers, making ballot-rigging less likely. But Mr Bulatovic complained: "Such a crucial decision [independence] must not be carried out by a trick." He demanded that the government call off victory celebrations.
The loss of Montenegro confirms Serbia as the biggest loser of the disintegration of former Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia's end

* SLOVENIA: referendum on independence in December 1990, seceded in June 1991

* CROATIA: referendum in May 1991, war started in June 1991 and lasted four years, broke off all ties that October

* BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA: referendum in March 1992, declared independence same month, war broke out in April that year and lasted until 1995

* MACEDONIA: referendum in September 1991, admitted to United Nations as Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in April 1993

* KOSOVO: under UN administration since June 1999

* MONTENEGRO: referendum on independence yesterday

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