Democrats take heart as Americans turn their back on Bush policies
A new poll for the Washington Post and ABC News suggests that the Republican Party could be lining up for substantial defeat this November and that they may lose both the House and the Senate, leaving George Bush - currently hovering in opinion poll slightly above lows reached only by presidents Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Harry Truman and his father - as a lame duck President.
This is despite Bush's attempt to reshuffle his cabinet and this week's speech on Mexican illegal immigration which, as I described here, was greeted by Republicans like a cup of cold sick.
Already Republican pundits are preparing excuses, some of which appear to have no bearing with reality.
David Frum, who was responsible for writing Mr Bush's "axis of evil" speech, said yesterday: "It is not clear he has hit bottom yet. My view is that 2006 will not be a good year for Republicans."
Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster and strategist, echoed Mr Frum, who is now a resident fellow at the rightwing Washington thinktank the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). "This is not going to be a good year for parties in power, not just in America. There is an anxiety in western democracies right now that has led voters to oust parties in power. There is unease and frustration with the status quo and a desire for change."
It is typical of Luntz to admit possible defeat but insist that his party were not responsible should such a defeat take place.
The Post/ABC poll, consistent with the trend in other polls during the past month, found that 69% of those surveyed thought the country was now off track and 56% would prefer to see Democrats in control of the US Congress. The Democrats recorded majorities over the Republicans on 10 crucial issues: health, education, the federal budget, petrol prices, taxes, phone-tapping and other privacy matters, the economy, Iraq, immigration, and the campaign against terrorism.
Mr Bush's personal approval rating is only 33%, down five points in a month, with the decline sharpest among Republicans. Only 32% of those polled said they approved of the way he is handling Iraq. A toll of soldiers killed in Iraq is listed daily in US papers and on television. Karl Rove, Mr Bush's top election strategist, told an AEI meeting on Monday that Iraq was the issue that soured everything.
The stark truth is that Bush, like his British counterpart Blair, is finally being held to account for the lies they told prior to the Iraq invasion. Perhaps, had the aftermath of that invasion gone as smoothly as they had both led the public to believe, their lies would have been of less import.
However, with Iraq teetering towards civil war, it is inevitable that the public now ask "Why are we here?" and rage against the men who misled them.
Bush's Iraqi problems were compounded by his reaction to hurricane Katrina when he appeared both complacent and incompetent, a horrendous combination.
And, as I reported yesterday, when his economic mismanagement drove away fiscal Conservatives, he was left with only the most radical elements of the Republican Party supporting him. The problem for a President slumping at a 29% approval rating in the polls is, that when he tries to strengthen his base with traditional speeches on immigration - as Bush this week tried to do - is that he finds his base is far more radical than he could ever bring himself to be, and that his speech only manages to anger the few people left supporting him, some of whom are now calling for his resignation.
Bush's present position was arrived at through his administration's staggeringly arrogant refusal to ever listen to any counter point of view.
It is highly ironic then, that when he most wants to reach out to the country, he finds that they have stopped listening to him.
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