Blair will be dragged, kicking and screaming, from Number 10.
I told you before how a friend of mine in the House of Lords has always said that Blair won't leave Downing Street without leaving the scratch marks from his finger nails along the door as he exits.
I said this in relation to the supposed scandal over Charles Clarke and John Prescott, and pointed out that the door remained unscratched.
However, that was all before the catastrophic results in the local elections and Blair's brutal reaction to them, in which he stunned the entire party by taking an axe to his cabinet in an attempt to suggest that the blame lay outwith the vicinity of his own two shoulders.
The brutality of that reshuffle has alienated the centre of the party and further emboldened the Brown camp to make moves against him, leaving Blair with only his most loyal Blairites left to defend him.
Yesterday, he sent them into battle.
Charlie Falconer said yesterday morning. "There will be no change of leadership in the foreseeable future."
John Reid, warned: "This isn't actually about a date, this is about forcing Tony Blair out. To force Tony Blair out, to stop the reform programme, to start to move back to old Labour ... would be a disaster."
Stephen Byers, a leading Blairite, warned: "If we want to have an orderly transition, what we cannot have is the forced removal of Tony Blair as our leader. Those people who are organising a coup against him are playing a very dangerous game and they should stop."
One of Mr Blair's closest allies said: "If Labour loses the next election, we will look back on this weekend when Gordon came out into the open with his challenge, and the divisions in the party became institutionalised. The voters will leave in their droves."
The door isn't so much scratched, as it's in danger of becoming shredded.
Gordon Brown took to the airwaves yesterday to continue his difficult balancing act, calling for the "renewal" of the party whilst, simultaneously, wagging his finger at "outriders" who were pressing ahead too fast.
He displays a dexterity that's seldom been seen outside of Circus Du Soleil.
For he knows too well the outcome that befalls presumed leaders who push ahead in an unseemly manner. The danger, as can be attested by the political gravestones of Michael Heseltine and David Davis, are twofold. The former was accused of putting his personal ambition before the greater good of his party, the latter was found guilty of the crime of presumption of future high office. Both were denied the crown.
So Brown must advance carefully and there is every indication that he intends to do so.
However, the very fact that this man who has waited, some would say too patiently for eleven long years, is making even tentative moves in such a public manner, is an indication that the end game is upon us.
The gravitational centre of the Labour Party is moving away from Tony Blair. He lost the left of the party with his illegal invasion of Iraq, now the centre are deserting him because of the brutality of a reshuffle in which he appeared to put his own survival before the good of the Labour movement.
The dichotomy on which he has speared himself was best summed up by the Old Labour stalwart, Roy Hattersley:There was a time when the prime minister believed in something. His vision of the good society was one which I did not share. But I accepted that he wanted more than power alone. Now he believes in nothing except hanging on, in the hope of regaining some of his lost reputation. Not even the present Labour party will tolerate that for long.
So, the game is up. The writing is on the wall. And the end, when it comes, will be very, very messy. And all because Blair will insist that he be dragged, screaming and kicking, from number ten leaving the scratch marks of his finger nails on the door as he departs.
If that's how he wants it, so be it. But Blair will now be removed.
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