Saturday, April 15, 2006

Absence of Plan B may lead to war.

Before the last US election, whilst considering possible options for the incoming President vis a vis Iranian nuclear intentions, The Atlantic magazine conducted a war game simulating preparations for a U.S. assault on Iran.

Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel, took part in the proceedings which exhausted all the options open to the US.

At the end of the exercise he came to a simple conclusion, "After all this effort, I am left with two simple sentences for policymakers," Sam Gardiner said, "You have no military solution for the issues of Iran. And you have to make diplomacy work."

This was the reality for the incoming President.

President Bush, since being re-elected, has embarked on Plan A. Pressure on Iran through the Security Council, possibly followed up by sanctions.

This, of course, works on the assumption that the Security Council will see things his way and agree to sanction Iran - something which Russia and China are reluctant to do.

As I've often argued, I think Bush is tearing down a dead end street and doesn't have a plan for what to do when he, inevitably, hits the wall. And that wall, it would appear from the way things are going, is getting nearer and nearer.

To highlight the dilemma that Bush is about to spear himself on, Colonel Sam Gardiner now says "I have a terrible feeling they are taking this one day at a time. They have a plan A but not a plan B."

News reported in today's Guardian that the UK joined the US in a war game, codenamed Hotspur 2004, which took place at the US base of Fort Belvoir in Virginia in July 2004 and involved coalition forces invading a fictitious country named Karona - which corresponded geographically exactly to Iran - gives the worrying impression that the US may find itself at war with Iran for no better reason than they have no other plan.

This is the worry about Condi and Bolton sledge-hammering their way through the Security Council without having fully considered what they will do if the Council refuse to see the Iranian threat with the level of urgency that they do.

It's time for the US to urgently consider a Plan B, otherwise they may find themselves sliding towards the military option that their own research has found to be no solution at all.

It's time for the Bush administration to realise that strength does not overcome all obstacles. It's time for genuine diplomacy.

And you can't come to a diplomatic solution with someone that you refuse to even talk to.

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