A Self-fulfilling Prophecy

I take some comfort from the fact that I am not the only person on the planet to find the US's intentions towards Iran worrying. As I argued here, I think Bush is heading down a path that he has not fully thought out when he calls for sanctions against the Iranian regime.

Mohamed ElBaradei has recently come to a similar conclusion. "Sanctions are a bad idea. We are not facing an imminent threat," ElBaradei said during an address to students at the Qatar Foundation, in which he also said he sees a "Middle East that is in a really dangerous situation."

The US are having difficulty achieving international consensus on what should happen if (I say when) the Iranians predictably refuse to comply with US/UN demands.

Yesterday, Condi held a meeting to discuss what happens if the Iranians refuse to comply.

At the meeting in Berlin, Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, said sanctions could not be used “to solve” the Iranian nuclear dispute, adding that the IAEA had yet to provide “decisive evidence” that Iran was developing the capability to make nuclear weapons.

And as I predicted here, the Chinese are joining the Russians in opposing sanctions.

Dai Bingguo, Chinese vice-foreign minister, cautioned against further steps that could lead to “new turmoil” in the Middle East. Both US and UK officials stressed that international unity on the next steps must be reached within the 30-day period.

The danger, as far as I can see, is what the Americans will do once they realise that they have led themselves down a cul-de-sac.

They have embarked on a course of "action" that is bound to end in stalemate. There is no international consensus on the "immediacy" of a threat that is still a decade away.

But as I reported here, the US led by John Bolton, do not look like backing down.

When Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated, “It looks so déjà vu”, he was drawing on the obvious comparisons between the current situation regarding Iran and the American pig headedness that led to the recent conflict with Iraq.

Bolton, when asked about Lavrov’s comment replied, “If that is déjà vu, then so be it, but that is the course we are on in an effort to get Iran to reverse its decision to acquire nuclear weapons.”

Lavrov also called the U.S. push for a showdown over Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program a “self-fulfilling prophecy.”

And that is my worry. When the US hit the inevitable brick wall they are heading towards, people like Bolton will pretend they have "exhausted all options".

Will they, at that point, back off? Pigs will fly.

Tags: US, Iran, Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, ElBareidi, Condi Rice, John Bolton, Sanctions, Nuclear capability,